As India enters the final quarter of 2025, its securities market is influenced by a combination of domestic monetary policies, global economic uncertainties and sector-specific dynamics. The RBI has maintained the repo rate at 5.50% during its October Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, signaling a neutral stance after earlier rate cuts totalling 100 basis points earlier this year. This approach aims to support growth in credit-sensitive sectors while keeping inflation in check.
Precious metals like gold and silver have reached record highs, driven by safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, ETF flows, geopolitical risks and the depreciation of the Indian rupee. Conversely, crude oil prices have softened due to rising global supply and the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts, benefiting domestic industries and easing inflationary pressures.
This analysis provides insights into these developments, offering investors and risk leaders a comprehensive overview of the current market trends.
Gold and Silver
The rally in gold and silver has captured the attention of Indian investors, setting new benchmarks in domestic and international markets. Gold has approached ₹1.2 lakh per 10 grams in India, while international prices have surpassed $3,900 per ounce. Silver has demonstrated an even more remarkable trajectory, reflecting its dual role as both a precious and an industrial, marking a significant increase from earlier in the year.
Several factors contribute to this surge. A prolonged U.S. government shutdown has delayed economic data releases, increasing uncertainty and driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Additionally, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and declining real yields have further supported bullion demand. The weakening of the Indian rupee has also made gold more attractive to domestic investors, amplifying its appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
For Indian investors, this presents an opportunity to consider gold and silver as part of a diversified portfolio. However, it’s essential to monitor global economic developments and currency fluctuations, as these can impact precious metal prices.
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices have softened in recent months, with Brent crude trading around $65.39 per barrel as of October 6, 2025. This decline is attributed to rising global supply and the gradual unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts. The organization has decided to implement a modest increase in oil output for November 2025, raising production by 137,000 barrels per day, matching October’s hike. This cautious move comes amid concerns of an impending supply glut and weakening demand, especially heading into winter and during global refinery maintenance season.
For India, lower crude oil prices have several implications. Reduced input costs for industries, such as transportation and manufacturing, can lead to lower inflation and improved corporate margins. Additionally, a softer oil market eases pressure on India’s trade balance, benefiting the overall economy.
Investors should remain vigilant, as geopolitical events and changes in global demand can quickly alter oil market dynamics.
RBI’s Monetary Policy
The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% reflects a cautious approach to balancing economic growth and inflation control. The central bank’s neutral stance indicates that the impact of earlier rate cuts and recent fiscal measures are still unfolding.
This policy environment benefits rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, consumer durables and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), which stand to gain from continued liquidity. A stable Indian rupee amid global volatility helps manage imported inflation, providing a favourable backdrop for Indian corporates and exporters.
However, unexpected inflation spikes or global financial shocks could constrain the RBI’s policy space, impacting credit availability and market sentiment. Investors and businesses should remain prepared for potential shifts in the monetary policy landscape.
Indian Equities
Indian equities have shown signs of stabilization following the RBI’s MPC meeting reflecting improved investor sentiment.
Sector rotations are evident, with banks, metals and public sector enterprises (PSUs) leading performance, while sectors like media and real estate have underperformed. This uneven recovery highlights the importance of selective investment strategies.
Valuation remains a key focus during the earnings season. Investors are closely monitoring earnings delivery, cash flows and sectoral resilience. Factor-based strategies, focusing on quality and value, are critical amidst global uncertainty.
BFSI Sector
India’s BFSI sector continues to demonstrate strong fundamentals. Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) report robust profit growth, with Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) at multi-year lows. Public Sector Banks (PSBs) have posted record profits, reflecting improved credit quality and capital adequacy.
However, deposit competition remains intense, influencing net interest margins (NIMs). Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) are facing regulatory scrutiny to ensure sustainable growth, particularly in unsecured and SMEs lending portfolios.
Technological adoption, including digital banking and fintech collaborations, is reshaping customer experience and operational efficiency. Investors should focus on institutions with diversified funding sources, strong provisioning buffers and digital distribution capabilities to navigate potential macro or liquidity shocks.
Cryptocurrency
The cryptocurrency landscape is becoming increasingly complex, influenced by regulatory divergence between the U.S. and China.
In the United States, the GENIUS Act provides clarity for stablecoins, emphasizing high-quality reserves and transparency. Complementary bills on market structure and anti-central bank digital currency (CBDC) measures further enhance regulatory oversight.
China, on the other hand, is accelerating e-CNY pilots and cross-border payment experiments under a sovereign-led model. This approach contrasts sharply with the U.S., focusing on state control, privacy considerations, and domestic payment modernization.
In India, cryptocurrencies are legally recognized as Virtual Digital Assets (VDAs) under the Income Tax Act, 1961. Transactions involving these assets are taxable, with a 30% flat tax on gains and a 1% tax deducted at source (TDS) on transfers over ₹10,000 annually. However, cryptocurrencies cannot be used as legal tender.
India has not fully legalized private cryptocurrencies but maintains partial oversight, fearing that integrating them into the mainstream financial system could raise systemic risks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opposes private cryptocurrencies and has advocated for their ban. Simultaneously, the RBI is piloting its own Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which carries legal tender status similar to fiat money.
For Indian corporates exploring crypto for cross-border settlements, adherence to emerging anti-money laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) standards is essential. Risk management and operational compliance are critical, given the global divergence in regulations.
Strategic Insights
India’s securities market in October 2025 presents a complex mix of opportunities and risks. Defensive instruments like gold and silver provide a hedge against macro uncertainties, while equities and cyclical commodities offer selective upside for those monitoring policy and corporate earnings trends. The BFSI sector remains resilient, though sensitive to deposit costs and unsecured credit normalization. Meanwhile, global crypto developments present both opportunity and compliance challenges for corporates.
Investors and risk leaders must navigate this multifaceted landscape with informed strategies, robust risk management, and a clear understanding of domestic and global dynamics. Balancing defensive and cyclical exposures, staying abreast of regulatory changes, and maintaining a focus on quality and value will be crucial in the coming months.
