For decades, geopolitical risk occupied the periphery of corporate strategy. It was discussed occasionally in relation to oil prices, elections or major conflicts, but rarely treated as a core operating variable for day-to-day business decisions. Most companies assumed that globalisation would continue deepening, supply chains would remain broadly stable and trade integration would steadily outweigh…
The End of Predictability For decades, many companies treated uncertainty as an occasional disruption rather than a permanent business condition. Scenario planning therefore became an annual offsite exercise, a workshop dominated by PowerPoint presentations, hypothetical discussions and broad macroeconomic assumptions that rarely influenced day-to-day execution. In stable economic cycles, that approach appeared sufficient. In today’s…
The architecture of global banking is undergoing a structural transformation, one that is increasingly shaped not by market fundamentals alone but by the shifting contours of geopolitics. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), in its working paper “Global Banking and Geopolitics Through Time,” presents a data-driven examination of how political alignments and strategic rivalries are…
By Amit Baraskar Group Treasury Head, Thomas Cook India Periods of global stress have a way of resurrecting unresolved questions. Few have proved as persistent as the debate around the future of the US dollar. Each cycle of volatility renews speculation about whether the world’s dominant reserve currency is approaching a point of inflection. In…
For most of the last century, logistics was seen as an operational science about efficiency, speed and scale. The challenge was linear: move goods faster, cheaper and farther. But the 21st-century reality is anything but linear. Today’s logistics leaders operate in a world best described by four letters that have redefined global commerce – VUCA:…
